Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
